As the banking crisis has spread from the United States to Europe, Bitcoin may find the perfect macro environment for a major price rally. In a tweet, notorious trader Andrew Kang wrote that the macro backdrop has never been more perfect.
Kang cites the Fed’s need to reduce its aggressiveness in raising interest rates in light of the economic slowdown and turmoil in the global financial system. In addition, stocks are not attractive given declining sales and high price-to-earnings ratios.
On top of that, according to Kang, bonds offer a mediocre yield and R/R profile. The US dollar, euro and other fiat currencies are likely to become increasingly devalued. “An amazing set-up to compel flows from TradFi investors,” Kang claims.
$2 Trillion In Liquidity And Credit Suisse
The trader’s tweet comes amid news that J.P. Morgan expects the Federal Reserve’s (Feds) emergency lending program to provide $2 trillion in liquidity. This will reverse the Fed’s monetary tightening policy, according to strategists at the major bank led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
A client note on Wednesday obtained by Bloomberg said that while it’s unlikely the largest banks would take up the program, the maximum utilization of the facility is nearly $2 trillion, equal to the nominal value of bonds held by US banks outside the five largest banks.
In Europe, the Swiss National Bank and the Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) have published a statement on market uncertainty and declared that the troubled Credit Suisse meets the capital and liquidity requirements imposed on systemically important banks. If necessary, the Swiss National Bank will provide Credit Suisse with liquidity.
Credit Suisse shares rose more than 40% at the start of the trading session after the bank announced it would borrow up to $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank.
Bitcoin Price About To Rally?
According to analyst “52kskew”, the recent setback in financial markets, despite an upcoming Fed pivot, may have happened due to uncertainty. “Something is not quite right with markets today, […] shift in market tone is very apparent in terms of macro / traditional markets,” the analyst explained, adding:
Looking more like rush to get out & higher volatility which boosts cash reserves more than market exposure for obvious reasons. Time horizon varies with this kind of positioning change to actual market impact; however, it’s always ahead of central bank pivots & global issues.
That a strong Bitcoin rise could be imminent is also indicated by the Binance spot order book. This shows a conspicuous abundance in the $22,500 to $24,000 range. Possibly this could be Binance’s liquidated Industry Fund being used to buy in this range?
Even if the heatmap does not mean that all orders are really filled, the situation remains to be observed. However, the analyst also warned, “Movements [are] becoming more clear here as buy orders are being placed under price to push prices higher. Often this attracts perp buyers to fill spot sell orders above,” and shared the chart below.
As analyst Michaël van de Poppe explained, today is a big day for the market, as the US unemployment figures will be released. Traders should keep an eye on that. “Last week we’ve seen the largest jump since October, would be wondering whether we’ll be seeing continuation of that rise, which might mean we’ll have higher unemployment numbers,” van der Poppe stated.
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $24,937, trying again to break through key resistance at $25,200.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com