/Bitcoin is Showing Early Signs of Fresh Surge, But 100 SMA is the Key

Bitcoin is Showing Early Signs of Fresh Surge, But 100 SMA is the Key

Bitcoin price is holding the $11,650 and $11,550 support levels against the US Dollar. BTC is currently recovering, but it must surpass the 100 hourly SMA to start a fresh surge.

  • Bitcoin is still trading nicely above the $11,650 and $11,550 support levels, with positive signs.
  • The price is likely to face a strong resistance near $11,950 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.
  • There was a break above a crucial bearish trend line with resistance near $11,810 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken).
  • The pair must settle above the $12,000 pivot level to start a fresh surge in the near term.

Bitcoin Price is Slowly Recovering

After a sharp downside correction, bitcoin price found support above $11,550 against the US Dollar. BTC remained well bid above the $11,550 level, but it settled below the 100 hourly simple moving average.

A swing low is formed near $11,581 and the price is currently recovering. It broke the $11,800 resistance zone, plus there was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $12,491 high to $11,580 swing low.

Moreover, there was a break above a crucial bearish trend line with resistance near $11,810 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is clearly showing a few positive signs above the $11,800 level, but it is facing a strong resistance near $11,950 and the 100 hourly simple moving average.

Bitcoin PriceBitcoin Price

Bitcoin price trades above $11,800. Source: TradingView.com

The 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $12,491 high to $11,580 swing low is also near $12,035. Therefore, the bulls need to clear the 100 hourly SMA and then gain strength above $12,000 to start a fresh increase in the coming sessions.

In the mentioned case, the price could easily drift towards the $12,150 and $12,250 levels. The main hurdle is still near the $12,500 level for a larger upward move.

Fresh Decline in BTC?

If bitcoin fails to continue higher above the 100 hourly SMA or the $12,000 barrier, there are chances of a fresh decline. An initial support is near the $11,650 level.

The main support on the downside is near the $11,550 level. If there is a proper close below $11,550 and $11,500, there is a risk of a larger decline towards $11,200 or $11,000.

Technical indicators:

Hourly MACD – The MACD is slowly moving into the bullish zone.

Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level.

Major Support Levels – $11,650, followed by $11,500.

Major Resistance Levels – $11,950, $12,000 and $12,050.

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